Illustration by Ethan Wenberg

John Kerry stood up on Wednesday night and showed some of the fire he should have displayed four years ago. He did what many Democrats had been calling for all week, delivering a blistering attack on John McCain's misguided policies and the failures of George W. Bush. Commentators including NBC anchor Brian Williams immediately called it the Democratic Convention's hardest hitting speech.

Condemning the Republicans for opening the tired playbook of Karl Rove and daring to question Barack Obama's patriotism, Kerry highlighted McCain's only plan to win this election. With Steve Schmidt at the helm, the same Rove disciple who ran the 2004 Bush war room, the McCain campaign has a simple strategy - to trash Obama by any means necessary.

But by picking Joe Biden as his running mate, Obama has made it much harder for McCain to Swiftboat, Paris Hilton, and Willie Horton his way into the White House.

Our job is not to follow the polls, but to get them to follow us.  The strength of our party will be the ability to convince people of our party's status as the viable alternative to Republican politics.

If we constantly let the polls determine our emotional tenor, we're going to be wrecks, because polls go up and down, and when they go down and we get jittery, we start saying things and doing things that convince people that our spines got lost in our baggage.

Polls are a scorecard for a game whose final buzzer is months ahead.  What Democrats in Washington and around the country need to ask themselves is what they want out of those polls, and what they want to rank high for people, and then formulate a plan to get people to go for that.  The smart Democrats have already formulated this plan.

Even if we were shagged out the door by 10:30 or so by the candidate (heh!), last night was rather upbeat at the headquarters of Steve Blythe, the Democrat who's gunning to take back the Florida 15th. He beat a challenger two-to-one who was a Republican until December 2006.

It's been inspiring and to see what about twenty volunteers (most of them retirees) accomplished on behalf of a principled, plain-talking man.
Last night it occurred to me that there's a lot of grass-roots experience among the Kossacks, when it comes to taking on a well-financed opponent - so I got the go-ahead to request your input. Even though there's no incumbent to take on in the general election, the real adventure is just beginning...

It's Democratic Convention time in Denver, and this week we're seeing some of the most promising '08 House and Senate candidates on display. Many have been struggling for a turn in the spotlight all year, as the presidential race continues to monopolize attention, volunteer energy and fundraising dollars.

Orange County, California's 46th Congressional District has been represented since 1988 by delusionally far-right Republican Dana Rohrabacher. But this year he faces a stiff challenge from Huntington Beach mayor and former city council member Debbie Cook.

Barack Obama and Debbie Cook in Newport Beach, CA

Rohrabacher is one of the worst Republican clowns in Congress, and Cook is a champion on all the issues that matter. The 46th district is ready to vote for a credible alternative to Rohrabacher. This race is winnable and Debbie Cook deserves to be on every progressive's list for donations and support.

More below the fold...

No $#!T.

All the hand-wringers and concern trolls must not understand what real change is.  This isn't merely another election; this isn't just about the next 4 years (hopefully 8 years); this isn't about "winning".  We are trying to do something different this time around, something remarkable, something unique in the history of politics: we are trying to win without being divisive.  In order to truly change the nature of politics, we cannot imitate the Republicans (the Party), using rovian (I refuse to capitalize) tactics to achieve victory; such a victory would be hallow and worthless. We must not become the "enemy" in order to beat the "enemy"; the end does not (and rarely does) justify the means.

[Please note: "enemy" does not refer to Republicans in general, but to the likes of Karl Rove, people who will do anything to gain power; there are plenty of his ilk in the Democratic Party as well

Yes, I know putting the word 'Maths' in the title is a turn off, but actually maths is a wonderful thing, unless of course your a Repug right now that is!

I know polls do not mean jolt, the only one that matters is in November, but they do give an indication (and only an indication) of how people are feeling and likely to vote.  I will not consider individual polls here but the 'Real Clear Politics' (RCP) running national poll of polls.  Link.

The evidence from the RCP national polls show the following:

1.  McCain's highest rating since July 1st is 44.5% (August 5th)

2.  Obama's highest rating since July 1st is 48.7% (July 6th)

3.  McCain's lowest rating since July 1st is 41.4% (July 20th)

4.  Obama's lowest rating since July 1st is 44.8% (August 22nd)

5.  The average number of people not indicating a preference is 11% of those surveyed.

This may seem worrying at first sight but follow me over the page.......

I don't feel a need to write any further.  The ad they put out speaks for itself.

To:  Kossacks
From:  My Mother's Basement

McCain attempts to set the hurdle high in shaping the media narrative for the coming week:

This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton’s Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a “change” oriented election cycle and the economy was voters’ top issue -- a dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention. Obama is also a “new” candidate in a change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy.

Really?  You just pulled a Poppy Bush grocery scanner out-of-touch elitist gaffe (times 7 8 9 10 11 12), and now you want to compare this election to '92?  I guess you really are out-of-touch.

And crappy at this narrative shaping thing.

Let me give you a piece of free advice.  Don't wear a watch during the debates.  Okay?

This diary is a quick summary of how the election will turn out in my opinion according purely to my gut instincts.

By choosing Biden as VP is a very astute move by Obama, not only will such a move now lesson the effectiveness of those within the Democratic Party who 'hate' Obama because 'he' took their Queens crown.  But Biden for many reasons will attract independent voters who until now have been drawn to Obama but worried about the message of 'Change'.  Also being a Catholic Biden will lay to rest fears some independents and Republican Pro-Life voters have had about what an Obama administration would mean for 'the abortion debate'.

But above all else Biden as VP will show the American people that when Obama says 'Change' he does not mean either 'change for change's sake' or revolutionary change, but change where it is needed and a change from the tyrannical Republican rule of the Bush era and McCain clone of Bush.

Also Biden resonates well with the so-aclled 'blue-collar' white male voter.

I actually spoke with an army Captain who blogs on right-wing blogs, and expressed (polite) disagreement about Obama during a casual discussion.

Before I begin, I want to make this clear since people might get the wrong idea. He was not using his position or authority to try to pressure me. It was a brief, civil discussion between two adults.

He strikes me as a reasonably intelligent person and he's obviously college educated.

He actually questions the validity of Obama's birth certificate!

Yes, I said it, though the Kool-Aid drinkers will hate it.  Our candidate is in deep shit, and all you Kool-Aid drinkers can do is post snarky comments  about food because YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!

CROSSPOSTED AT STRATEGY08.

I outlined some of my criticism of the Obama press strategy yesterday, and with McCain making a huge blunder, the Obama camp senses a huge opening. And like a lion catching a zebra, it looks like Obama is poised to go for the jugular.

From today's Beyond Chron.

It’s déjà vu all over again.  We’re in August of a presidential election year, and all of a sudden progressives are freaking out by saying: “I think [insert Republican candidate here] is going to win.”  But it’s important to keep things in perspective, and stop the same usual panicking that is only self-defeating.  John McCain may have inched up in the polls, but Barack Obama still has a lead.  And this movement (which has only been a few points) is the product of a string of McCain attacks that the Obama campaign did not respond to until now.  More importantly, McCain cannot keep this going because he’s outspending Obama in the “swing states” – despite raising less money.  Meanwhile, Obama is waging a 50-State strategy that gives him a far superior ground game – giving him more than one pathway to victory, and also more room for error.  If anything, the Obama campaign is brilliant to let McCain do this now while most voters are still not paying attention.  After the Democratic Convention next week, McCain will have run out of options.

Conservatives are finally voting for the candidate they're being told to! A single Zogby poll has been released! The primaries aren't even over yet, and we're already doomed! DOOOOOMED!

Seriously, people. Breathe into a paper bag or something. All this hand wringing is not only unnecessary, it's completely counterproductive.

Carly Fiorina, known best for reassuring ex-Clinton backers that John McCain voted for Ginsburg/Souter/et cetra's confirmation even while McCain says he'd never appoint them, while also hinting that McCain won't give a preference to viagra over contraceptives when it comes to medical coverage(actually, he does!), has met privately with the brother of Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania.  I am not kidding you.   Hillary Clinton's own brother is planning to vote Republican after supporting her in the primaries.

Wasn't Clinton suppose to reach out to these people?  Per the Times Tribune of Scranton, Pennsylvania;

I gave in and made an open thread. Either this will be ignored and scroll into oblivion as new VP threads make their way into the noise, or we can distill all this fervor a little bit.

VP VP VP VP VP VP VP VP.

A decision has been made.

New York Times

Mr. Obama’s advisers said he reached his VP decision while on vacation in Hawaii. They said it marked the end of what proved to be an unexpectedly intense process, condensed because he did not want to start actively vetting potential running mates before Mrs. Clinton quite the race in June.